Fake it till you make it or Dunning-Kruger effect?
In this article, I am going to share some experience about a serious issue in the start-up space. You might have already heard about Dunning Kruger effect and the famous story of McArthur Wheeler, the Pittsburgh banks robber. If you are not familiar with these two interesting topics, I encourage you to see the references in the following [1, 2].
Briefly, the whole story is about believing you know something that you don't. Dunning Kruger effect is also known as type of Cognitive Bias. This phenomenon can be found in plenty of our daily interactions with people around us. For example, we all know people who have just read something on Wikipedia and 15 minutes later they talk about it like they have a PhD on this topic. But, is this fair to to consider yourself as a senior expert, the day after you learn something on the internet or in an online course or workshop? Like many others, you may say no, not at all!
The word “Senior” has a meaning [3]: “A Senior title is a leadership role indicating that the person is not just experienced, but team-oriented … These standards must be challenging, yet achievable and require that people work at that level for a time before the title is given.”
So, anytime you give yourself a title like Senior Developer, Senior Data Scientist, Senior Engineer, Senior Product Manager, etc. etc. please take a look back to your background and CV. Putting your self in the shoes of a senior person, while you do not deserve it, may get you caught like McArthur Wheeler in a situation that there is no way back. Being senior takes courage and responsibility that we can not develop just by having a license/degree.
On the other hands, in the start-up world there is a broadly known principle called “Fake it till you make it”. In Wikipedia it is defined as “An English aphorism which suggests that by imitating confidence, competence, and an optimistic mindset, a person can realize those qualities in their real life and achieve the results they seek.” Well, knowing about the Dunning Kruger effect, makes this principle like walking on the razor edge. The business development skill is in one side and the cognitive bias in the other side.
A highly skilled business developer who is the CEO of a start-up company is usually aware of Lean and Design Thinking approaches. Just to recall the Lean process, right after the validation of problem, it is time to propose some values to the target customers according to their persona. The only and only way to perform a perfect study of customer values, is to present a solution and receive the users feedback while applying the solution for solving his/her problem. This is where the knowledgeable business developer uses the “fake it till you make it” skill. The MVP is presented to the potential customers and investors like the team have completed all the development chains and can support one million users in the next month. Entrepreneurs without this skill can be categorized in two groups:
1- Those who are in love with a perfect technical demonstration: These people find themselves with a perfect and functional product with a huge burning rate while its not customer-centric and no one wills or even needs to pay for such product or service. I call this group Blind Engineers.
2- Those who are good sellers but are not aware of technical skills, challenges, and difficulties: These people have very advanced skills on seeing and listening to nothing/nobody, but the market demand. So, they find the people with big pains and pretend very well that they have the pain killer in the demanded quality and quantity. They do not listen to the other team members about how challenging it is to develop such pain killer. So, the company finds itself in the valley of despair (see figure 1) much sooner than expected. I call this group as Deaf Sellers.
Blind Engineers are very good in burning cash flows that usually comes from public (not smart) funding. Because, smart funding is rarely dedicated to startup without good traction and market study. Within the last 6 years of interacting with startups, I have seen hundreds of Blind Engineers who their companies were obviously too risky to be invested and venture capitals can very easily drop them out of their check list. Believe me or not, a real example is the start-up developing a humanoid robot serving coffee in gas-stations to encourage parents becoming loyal to an specific Energy Brand.
Also, Deaf Sellers are very good in ruining the reputation of their own brand. These people usually cause several failed pilot projects, bad reputation and frustrated team. The technical team lead by Deaf Sellers are in low confidence because of the existing gap between their experience/competence and claimed product. They are usually afraid to confront the venture capitals because the main technical questions about the product have never been answered. Let’s say, the team has not reached the slope of engagement, yet. Even if Deaf Sellers have enough money to build an expert team and pass the valley of despair, they do not have the team-building skills. Imagine, how a mechanical engineer who studied blockchain over the night and has never touched the software development space, can hire the right people to develop the right product? Although, thanks to google search engine he/she can pitch, the smart farming innovation powered by blockchain, in front of clients/partners/investors.
As a conclusion, the good thing about Blind Engineers is that they are less exposed to Dunning-Kruger effect. However, they may suffer from their perfectionist mindset. Thus, lack of a senior business developer in their team may lead them to a very late and sad bankruptcy. Deaf Sellers are the worst start-up owners that can use the “fake it till you make it” skill in their business, and so, they are highly exposed to Dunning-Kruger effect. These people have still a better chance compared to Blind Engineers, if they go deeper and spend a significant amount of time reading and learning about their business.
References
[1] https://medium.com/@littlebrown/i-wore-the-juice-the-dunning-kruger-effect-f8ac3299eb1
[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y50i1bI2uN4
[3] https://blog.prototypr.io/what-it-means-to-be-senior-202cd48520c6
